NBA Finals Matchup: LeBron James vs. the Warriors' defense
Last week, reporters asked LeBron James how you stop Steph Curry. He responded "Like you stop me... you can't." Since the emergences of the star player in basketball, it's been apparent. Good defense can't truly stop the undeniably great players. The objective, as coaches and players will tell you, is to try and make him work. You chip away at their point productivity per possession while eroding their energy level, and the cumulative effect is where you win the game. LeBron averaged 28.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in the Finals last year, yet the idea was that Kawhi Leonard "stopped him" because he wore at his efficiency.
The Warriors present a matchup vs. James that's like that iPad game you keep thinking about after you've turned it off. Your mind keeps going over the puzzle, trying to figure out how it fits together, where the missing clue is. The Warriors have the personnel to attackelements of James' play, but not the entire kit and caboodle, because, again, he's LeBron James.
The Finals won't be won or lost on James' production. He's going to get his points, his assists, his rebounds. That's why, yet again, he's LeBron. But they do need to guard him in the best way possible. How do they do that?
I. The Principles
Before we talk about the individual matchups and personnel, let's set a little bit of a blueprint. When you're facing LeBron James, here's what you want to do, based on what coaches have told reporters through the years.
a. Make him a jump-shooter. James' jumper has evolved quite a bit since he was a rookie, and it can be lethal. I wrote about it extensively last year. However, you cannot let him get a head of steam. When that happens, you suffer. You have to choose the lesser of two evils, and you'll take the jumper every time.
...And it should be noted that in the playoffs entering the Finals, James is shooting 29.9 percent -- 29.9 percent!-- on jumpers in the playoffs. You would think a regression to the mean is likely to occur at some point, but if it doesn't, that only reinforces that point. James spoke often of how frustrated he was with his jumper in the Eastern Conference Finals.
As for how to do this, the Mavericks and Spurs have used some variation of a matchup zone around LeBron. From there, in individual play, it's just about giving him room for that jumper while getting a step back for an advantage to deter the drive. Watch Kawhi Leonard's feet here:
That's how you contain him.
b. Attack his handle. James has power and control. But he's also a big dude at 6-8. There's room to attack it, and it's not so solid that you can't bother it. There's a reason he goes to the crab dribble so often. Targeting his handle on drives deters him and makes the shot tougher. This might seem obvious, but you don't want to attack James Harden or Steph Curry's dribble. It'll work out poorly. James however, is more susceptible.
c. Switch up your looks. You want to throw something new at him every time. You're also going to have to because putting one guy on him the entire time is exhausting and will eventually lead to foul trouble. The Spurs threw Boris Diaw on James often, though in the 2014 Finals it was primarily Kawhi, because, Kawhi. The Warriors don't have a Kawhi, but they have something similar. We'll get to that in a minute. Anyway, you throw the kitchen sink at him and if you find something that works, you can hammer away with it. It's never "one guy."
d. Bring help...carefully. You don't just say "We're going to commit to the double" like you had to with Shaq, or how you could with Kobe Bryant. Bryant was most often going to go ahead and launch, or simply reset the play and you could do it again. The key is to attack him from the sides on drives and post-ups to attack the handle and having a help defender to contest at the rim. This is where the Warriors have the best personnel in terms of approach.
e. If you're going to foul, make it count. James is used to getting hammered, but there's still an effect when someone hits you. It does take something away from you. And never, ever, ever, ever, ever give a soft foul in transition. That's an and-one every time.
I. Straight-Up
It's entirely possible that the Warriors are going to come out with something crazy in Game 1. Starting Andre Iguodala. Putting Draymond Green on James from the get-go. Building some sort of crazy wall by locking arms. Advancing to non-conventional weaponry. You know, whatever it takes.
However, Kerr comes from a school of thought with Phil Jackson, and to a degree, Gregg Popovich, that preaches staying with your plan. You make the opponent adjust to you, and if that fails, then you can make your own changes to the approach. So don't be surprised if Harrison Barnes is the first line of defense vs. James in Game 1, small-forward vs. small-forward.
This is going to be dangerous, because of the threat of the post. In the regular season, James produced a shot, turnover, or pass for a shot or turnover 9.1 percent of the time according to Synergy Sports. In the playoffs, that number has skyrocketed to 16.2 percent. He's spending a lot more time there, because of the mismatches he's been afforded vs. Jimmy Butler and DeMarre Carroll. He's more patient with it, too, often going to consistent re-posts.
This does not forecast well for Barnes. Barnes has been great in the playoffs, contesting shots and making them on the offensive end. However, opponents are shooting 52.4 percent against him in the post, for a .964 points per possession mark -- which is very good for them. Here Jeff Green is able to gain positional ground on Barnes.
Trying to glean information from the one game James played vs. the Warriors is difficult. Not only is it a non-existent sample size, but it was just a weird game. The Warriors were off, and James was crushing them with contested jumpers. Here James doesn't even commit. He posts him, and could get what he wants... but instead just drills the jumper on the re-post.
This presents a really interesting question for the Warriors. Can they get themselves to live with James destroying Barnes if it means that they can stay home everywhere else? As we'll talk about, there's a ripple effect if you move someone else onto him. The best option may simply be to let James score 50, and make sure you stay home on shooters to ensure you can contest and rebound effectively. If James averages 50 points per game in this series -- and he most assuredly will not average more than 35 and that would be in itself exceptional-- and the rest of the Cavaliers can only muster 40-50, the Warriors will win.
It's just difficult for teams to live with that. Letting one guy consistently beat you changes how the game feels in real time. It's hard to see the game aggregate forest for the trees. Which is why Draymond Green is likely to get some time on him.
II. The Draymond Ripple
Draymond Green was the Defensive Player of the Year runner-up. He's deceptively fast, deceptively strong, exceptionally smart, and just a real pain in the ass for anyone he's defending. On Sunday I broke down all the ways he messes with an offense, you can find that here. What's crucial is that Green is able to defend under any situation. He can contain in isolation and bring the driver to Andrew Bogut. He can close out on spot-ups, he can disrupt post-entry passes, and he can maintain position on post-plays. Watch how little ground bigger opponents are able to gain on Green in the post in the clips below.
So Green has a good chance of holding his ground. There is, however, evidence to the contrary vs. James specifically.
Still, Green is the best player equipped to challenge James. He's a rougher, more athletic (at this point in his career) Boris Diaw, who gave James fits in the 2013 Finals. Throw in Green's mutant ability to get under any player's skin, and he's the best overall option.
Unfortunately, there are consequences to that move. The Warriors' lineups shift smaller, not bigger. If Green is guarding James, that will often mean Barnes has to box out Tristan Thompson, and that could get ugly, as Thompson has been a huge difference-maker with his offensive rebounding in the playoffs. The counter is to play a dual-center lineup at very limited times with Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, who has played well in the playoffs, allowing Green to play small forward to counter James. That limits offensive spacing and slows the pace, however, two things the Warriors definitely do not want to do offensively. (The Warriors haven't played Bogut and Ezeli together this season. Not once.)
(There's also the possibility of playing David Lee at power forward, enabling Green to play small forward. You lose the speed, but at least offensively you still have a scorer and passer on the floor.)
This is the problem with James in this particular Cavs roster. You can put your best defender on James, but you risk surrendering offensive rebounds at an alarming rate if you don't sacrifice spacing. If the Warriors feel that James is dictating the terms of the game, however, that might be something they live with.
III. Iguodala And Change
In that February game in which the Cavaliers won at home over the Warriors and James played, LeBron had 42 points on 37 possessions, which is terrific. Like I said, a lot of it was on contested shots that the Warriors will definitely live with, but it shows you how even in a game in which I'm not entirely convinced James was 100 percent engaged, he can dominate.
Andre Iguodala had most of the coverage on James in that game. Iguodala has been defending James for a decade, he knows how to play him, and knows that there will be nights like that night when the guy just scores. Iguodala does present maybe the best matchup against James with his size, strength, speed, knowledge base, and skillset in contesting shots and attacking the dribble.
James however, definitely got him in that game.
Iguodala has struggled with his outside shot in the playoffs (31 percent), so there is a cost in having him out there. Again, Steve Kerr has to balance spacing with defense, and it's hard to have both out there vs. this particular Cavs team.
Iguodala can defend him in the post, though, with some help. This is where Shaun Livingston comes into play. Livingston's ability to help down with long arms and then recover to contest is big. James eats doubles alive by passing to the help man, especially if it comes from the top. Look at how Livingston comes down to help and then contests on the perimeter.
Iguodala will see considerable time defending James in this series.
IV. The Bogut Effect
Andrew Bogut is a big key to the Warriors' defensive success. He can clean up mistakes and provides a stop-gap perimeter teammates can funnel their guy to. When James uses his off-arm to send his defender flying, Bogut cleans up on this James drive.
How the Warriors defend in pick and roll situations is obviously key; that's where James has spent most of his time offensively over the past three months, even more so than in isolation.
Bogut drops on James here, which is dangerous not only for the jumper or floater, but because it gives him space to pass. James will almost always find that pass, which is why Golden State's weakside defender have to stay attached, the way Memphis did by face-guarding shooters on the weakside.
V. The Extra Pass
Finally, that pick and roll component has multiple impacts. James is so intelligent with his court awareness and decision making that if you make a mistake, he'll punish you immediately. Here Draymond Green is matched up on J.R. Smith for some unknown reason. The result is that Green is slow on a closeout, which allows Smith to get middle, which opens up James, which forces the rotation... which leaves the corner open. The shot is missed. But the quality of the shot is what matters.
You can't stop James. He's LeBron James. However, you can deter him and limit his damage while containing the other Cavaliers, and that's something neither the Bulls nor Hawks were equipped or prepared to do. James may not decide these Finals if the Warriors can keep their defensive system intact, but you can bet the Warriors will still throw the kitchen sink at James in an effort to slow him down. How he responds, and how they adjust, will be a fascinating wrinkle in these Finals.
Published by: CBS SPORTS
June 2nd, 2015
Source: www.cbssports.com
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